Wednesday, March 20, 2013

march madness predictions

   I am going to share my picks on this years tourney.  If you are looking for an expert opinion stop reading.  I spend most of my sports attention on the Brown's, Indians, and Cav's plus OSU football.  Every March though I enjoy filling out the bracket and while I don't see many games I usually do pretty good with the brackets.  Last year I only had 2 of the final four but still picked Kentucky to win it all, I know that was a tough one to call.  I did miss Uconn two years ago but after that I would have to go back to  07 for the last time I missed picking the champ and that was one where I picked more with my heart then my head.  I still had an incredibly tough time this year and probably would have been better off throwing darts or letting my wife pick the favorite uniform but here we go.  By the way I still count the Tuesday/Wednesday games as play ins and round one starts on Thursday.

  In the south region I have compete chalk for round one, which if that happens I guess would be an upset of it's own.  The MAC usually causes trouble but I could not have Akron beating their old coach without their starting point guard.  I did have VCU knocking off Michigan to get to the sweet 16 and UCLA knocking off Florida but that is where the "upsets" end.  I have Kansas and Georgetown in the elite 8 with Kansas winning the region.  There was a small part of me almost picking UNC to upset Kansas, but I don't think Roy Williams will be able to pull off that feat with an inferior team.

  In the East region is where nearly all my upsets lie. I have the 9,10,12, and 13 seed all pulling off upsets in the first round.  When picking brackets you almost always have to pick two 12 seeds to win and here is the first of my two. No doubt Syracuse is the better then Montana but is there a team that has to travel farther?  I picked Cal and Butler to join Indiana and Miami in the sweet 16.  I have the streaky Miami going down to Butler who is going to upset the Hoosiers to punch their ticket to yet another final four. I have become a huge fan of Brad Stevens over the last few years and if Thad ever left the Buckeyes he would be number one on my wishlist.

  The Midwest region has the overall number 1 seed in Louisville and much like my Buckeyes a few years ago seem to be punished for that by being in the toughest region. In my opinion they have the strongest 2 seed, 3 seed, and I have seen quite a few predictions of St Louis winning the region.  Well I do have Mizzou winning one game before bowing out to Louisville.  I went back and forth on the Oregon game before selecting my second 12 seed to advance although I really see that game going either way.  The next upset in this bracket will be Creighton knocking off Duke, we all know illogical reasons are sometimes right and history shows Duke seems to really struggle as a 2 seed.  By the way two weeks ago Duke was who I was leaning towards winning the whole thing , I know completely illogical.  I do have another double digit seed in the sweet 16 with Oregon knocking off St Louis.  All said and done thought I have Michigan State coming out of the region outlasting Louisville in the regional final.

  Lastly my Buckeyes region, the west.  I really did not anticipate being a homer pick, even last week I was thinking elite 8 at best for OSU.  Until they knocked off Indiana a few weeks ago I would not have been surprised to see them miss the sweet 16.  They have a great coach though and have been playing well with 8 straight wins.  In the first round the only upset I have is Belmont winning, actually I have them beating New Mexico as well and I think  they will give OSU all they can handle, if Thomas has an off game the buckeyes can be in trouble.  but I do have OSU winning not just against Belmont but also getting past the 4 seed Kansas St who will provide the only other upset in the West when they knock off Gonzaga.

  The Final four is Kansas, Michigan State, Butler and Ohio State. In this year where no team really separated itself as a clear cut favorite to win it all I think the experience of these teams head coaches will make the difference.  I would love to pick my Buckeyes to advance to the title game and while I think it will go down to the wire I don't see them knocking off Tom Izzo's team for a third time this season.  On the other side I would love to see Brad Stevens get his team back to the championship game, but I do think Kansas will end the Bull dogs run this year.  So in this year of unpredictability who do I have cutting down the nets April 8th?  That would be Kansas, a team that lost it's regular season finale, and had a horrible week to start February. Other then that they were nearly flawless, as a matter of fact their only other loss to tarnish their resume was back in November on a neutral site, the Georgia Dome, their opponent, yep you guessed it, Michigan State. 

Sunday, March 3, 2013

The 2013 Brown's Quarterback is...

   The Brown's quarterback situation seems to be all you can hear about on Cleveland sports radio right now.  We  have the Cav's playing at a .500 clip the last few months, the Tribe starting it's most promising spring training in over a decade and all everyone wants to talk about is something that we won't know who's right or wrong for years to come. So let me get in on the fun.

   Tell me what the following list of QB's has in common.  Weeden, Christian Ponder, Colt McCoy, Pat White, Chad Henne, John Beck, Kellen Clemens, Charlie Frye, JP Losman, Rex Grossman, David Garrard, Marques Tuiasosops, Tee Martin,and Dante Culpepper.  There are a plethora of correct answers this group has in common, but I am looking at two common themes.  Zero Superbowl appearances, in fact this group has produced a combined 4-4 postseason record.  The second common theme, these were all the QB's drafted 4th in their respective class since the Brown's have come back. Fourteen signal callers and only Culpepper and Grossman have started postseason games, each going 2-2.  Look farther back you won't find a better track record, in fact the only QB selected 4th in his draft class to wear rings is Joe Montana, my friends that is called the exception to the rule.

    Is Brandon Weeden a better NFL QB then McCoy?  It comes down to a matter of opinion and mine is yes, Weeden is the better of the two.  Was he that much better though to warrant a 1st round pick, NO.  Colt had a decent rookie campaign,  his second season, well unimpressive is a kind way to describe it.  Still it felt if we traded in a Ford Focus for a Fusion, we needed to wait to get the Mustang.  I am pretty confident that with the better surrounding talent on the field last season the Brown's would have still won 5 games with Colt behind center. How nice would Decastro or Fleener looked in the orange helmet instead of Weeden. I will never be able to wrap my head around the thinking that picking the 4th best QB last year was a better option then rolling one more season with Colt, and if he failed, would put us in position to get one of the better QB's in this class.  There are plenty of Russell/Leaf size busts, I know, but the probability of succeeding with the best QB in his class is much higher then getting the 4th best guy.

     Franchise QB's do not come along very often.  Count me as one who was more relieved then disappointed though  when the Redskins swung the trade instead of the Browns last season that landed Griffin. I did not see him as a can't miss and still worry if he will have a Manning type impact when his career is done. That type of impact is what I define as a can't miss.  Hindsight is 20/20 and RGIII thoroughly impressed me last season, he genuinely seems like a great guy, I am rooting for him to be successful, the only part of me that does not want to see him become one of the greats is the Brown's fan in me, knowing how close we where and what could have been if he has a long successful career.

   So the old regime has left us in quite a predicament.  History shows us that QB's do not have a successful track record when picked as low as Weeden was.  That list above has QB's picked from number 11 in round one to pick 163 in round five.  The eye test makes it look like Weeden, Smith and Barkley are on pretty equal footing.  Can Norv and Chud turn Weeden into the next Montana? Doubtful, but these guys are talking a good game at least and seem like they will tailor their calls to their players strengths.  So are they going to do that with the guy they inherited or are they going to pick their own?   I personally don't care if he's on the roster, gets drafted, signed, traded for, or is stocking shelves at a grocery store, they just need to get it right this time, twenty years between playoff is just plain unacceptable and they need to end it now.

   I know we can't go back in time and change things no matter how much we wish we can.  I know your thinking if that was possible I would be taking back the Weeden pick but you are wrong.  If we could change the past I would make the trade for Luck.  I would have spread out four 1st round picks and two 3rd round picks to earn that right.  I know a lot of you must think I am crazy, six picks for one player, especially when I was on the fence about the Griffin trade.  However if we draft Smith or Barkley as I suspect we will in April that means we have spent four 1st round picks and two 3rd round picks on trying to find the right quarterback since we have been back.  The most important pick the Brown's have made hasn't been in a draft, it was when Haslam tapped Banner to run this franchise.  Baltimore can have the Ravens but oh I wish we still had Ozzie.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Lebron to the Cavs

     Lebron returning to Cleveland is one of the hottest rumors, worst kept secret out there huh. So the question that needs to be asked is simple, do we want him back?  The simple answer in my opinion is yes.  Of course this isn't really a simple answer and if it was this would be an extremely short post and I would be posting to this blog a whole lot more often then what I do now.
     I am in my mid 30's and have been a Cleveland sports fan my entire life.  I have not been as invested in a team as I was with the LBJ era Cavs since I was in high school watching the Tribe routinely come back from double digit deficits.   I went to six Cavs  games the year before LBJ, and saw six of the Cavs seventeen wins that year. I remember my Dad complaining when we won the season finale because now we were only tied for the worst record and had less ping pong balls for the draft.  That did not matter, the ping pong balls fell our way, we didn't draft Melo or Milicic, how could we not break our drought now.
     Lebron's "decision" was the biggest punch to the gut since Modell took our team away and that baseball sailed over Nagy's outstretched glove.  It was over, Cleveland was no longer the center of the NBA.  I felt betrayed, how could he do that, he's one of us, but he did not see it that way.  He no longer wanted to play for a team built around his strengths, he wanted to go to a team that had another top 5 talent.  We will never know if it was the right "decision" sure he has a ring right now but had he stayed who knows he might have two.
      I want to see the Cavs win the title.  If LBJ is a free agent in 2014 it would be hard to imagine a scenario where we would be in a better position to do that without him then with him.  Kyrie is already a top 10 talent in this league, the two of them together could very well be the most devastating duo to take the court.  The Cavs are building this team different then the last time they had a franchise changing star and I like our chances with Kyrie as our future, but if the stars align for us to take that shortcut in 2014, how can we pass it up.                                                              
     Lebron does need to take ownership in the fact that he went ring less in his tenure here.  He can't be the reason we won 60+ games but not the reason we fell short of the title, it doesn't work like that.  I can't think of a realistic opportunity the Cavs missed on to get better quickly during the LBJ years.  In hindsight Shaq would have looked good in the eastern conference finals against Orlando in 09 but I was happy at the deadline passed without that move being made.  The Magic was a match up nightmare for us, shot like a 114% from three point land in the series and we still could have won that had the ball bounced differently about three times that week. Winning it all is hard, it's supposed to be, but it seems like leaving was the only way he was going to learn that lesson.       
     Why would Lebron want to come back?  Let's face it any team Lebron is on in the near future is a title contender.  I think he does now realize that not winning here was more on him then anyone else.  Except for when he was hugging that trophy last year I think he really enjoyed his time here better then he is right now in Miami.  Had he never left he could have been in the same breath of Jordan by getting probably 3 or 4 rings, once he did leave he now needs to get a ring for each finger to get into that conversation.  
     So if he has 2 or 3 rings come 2014 when the new CBA really hampers the chance to have 3 max salaries on one roster, where would he be best served to win multiple titles.  Teaming up with one of the best young talents in the game, an owner who has proven he gives his team a chance to succeed each year. I think Lebron will realize there truly is no place like home.  Will he click his Nike's three times in 2014 and make it happen, only time will tell.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Art modell, in or out of the hall of fame.

     When I first started this blog I told myself I would post once a week, well that has not worked out so well.  It was not a new Years resolution that I broke, no that was getting in better shape again, and so far so good on that.  This was just something I decided to start to do because I finally joined social media last year with twitter and sometimes 140 characters are not enough to share my thoughts.  I do not have nor expect a large following but I love the direct interaction that I can have with those that I follow.  So here are my two longer thoughts and some shorter ones on what has happened since my last post.

     Art Modell, in or out.  Well I 've lived in Northeast Ohio my entire life and have always rooted for the home team, so it's painfully obvious that ripping this franchise from our hearts is a crime that can never be pardoned with his accomplishments in Canton.  Why does he deserve to be in the hall, because he was a major proponent of pairing the NFL and television?  Something tells me that marriage was going to happen soon with or without Art.  The fact that he made Ozzie Newsome the first African-American General manager in the NFL?  While I will admit I was surprised that it was 2002 when the first African-American became a G.M. we're still not talking about a Jacky Robinson barrier breaking here.  Mr. Newsome earned that job by being a successful executive for eleven years and being the most qualified candidate for the opening, his track record since being the G.M. reiterates that point.  One Superbowl victory, if that is why he shoud be in, he should be inducted with Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson.

     I know, those of you who support him getting in want a reason other then "the move."  Before I get there though, I want to be clear that I have no ill will towards the people of Baltimore.  I don't snicker at people from Baltimore like I do for those from Pittsburgh or Michigan.  Baltimore deserved a franchise after the way yours was ripped from you, and its not your fault that a backstabbing owner is the one who brought it back to you.  Had the NFL and the city of Cleveland not struck a deal to get us an expansion franchise we would have been ecstatic to get a franchise like you did, but I would not be endorsing the owner for the HOF.  Now to get back on track, why keep Art out other then the move, simple.  Only two names merit serious conversation as the greatest coach of all time, Vince Lombardi and Paul Brown.  Only one worked for and was fired by Art.  Now lets examine who we would consider the greatest coach of this era, yes one name will always rise to the top, Bill Belichick, for those of you who don't remember Art fired him too.  Even if you are of the opinion that his good outweighs his bad I doubt the case can be made it is by a wide enough margin to be honored in the Hall of Fame.

     I can go on about Art more but I will try to summarize some thoughts on things I have not posted since early January.  Did the hiring of Chip Kelly really give the Browns a black eye,  IMO no.  Sure Chip was on my wish list (although not on top) on 12/31 and now that all the positions are filled it turns out he was the only one on my list that is coaching an NFL team.  After his song and dance he did with all the teams only to end up staying and then end up going to Philly I say good riddance.  I do not want such an indecisive individual leading this franchise, I would choose Chud over Chip ten times out of ten.  Indians spring training is fast approaching and while this off season does not feel like it did when we signed Murry and Martinez, this is the closest it has felt to that since.  I just hope Francona wraps up his book tour soon.  Congrats to Kyrie Irving, you deserve that starting spot on the All-Star team, thanks for giving us Cavs fans a reason to be hopeful again.

     One last thing I want to write about is about Chris Fedor being fired from KNR.  I figure most people reading this are the same people who listen to sports radio whenever they have a radio turned on, and I am shocked by some of the venomous tweets I've read.  KNR has the right to employ who they want to, period, and for whatever reason they made the decision to part ways with Chris.  The joy that some of you are taking in his livelihood being taken away is dumbfounding.  I worked with Chris outside of the  radio business over 5 years ago.  The date is fresh because he and I left that company on the same day, me to take a similar position at a different company, him being promoted at KNR.  I always enjoyed "talking"sports with him back then, it usually revolved who was better, Kobe or Lebron, I don't think we ever agreed.  The Chris I talked to back then was the same one I listened to on the radio these past years, and when I disagreed, I would send a tweet or even stop listening, just like some days when I turn off the RBS.  Radio personalites get paid to create conversation and for those who keep tweeting that his firing is proof that "your take" was right and his was wrong just keeps reiterating that he did his job well.

     I think what cracks me up the most is that most of "those" people think they should be hosting a radio show.  Well go and do it then.  There is no law stating minimum requirements to be on the radio.  Some might get in through connections, some by being former athletes, and some by investing their college education in broadcasting.  So if your not in the first two groups, invest four years of college, work for free interning to get in the industry and good luck, if you don't want to do that, then shut up and quit saying someone deserved losing their job because your opinions were different.  I'm not choosing sides here, I will still listen to the RBS most days and Ken Carmen most nights but I now am having trouble deciding which side of the dial to flip to in between.   As for Chris Fedor, I wish you the best of luck and hope that you stay local, and if you do, yes I will turn the dial when you start talking about your man crush on Chip Kelly.

    

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Now what for our Brown's coach

Wow what a fickle town we live in.  Pure joy and elation Friday has turned into venom and anger by the end of the weekend.  Fans seemed to pick out their spots on Ontario already for the Super Bowl victory parade.  CALM DOWN!  I understand if you are disappointed because you thought he was the best guy, you weren't alone, but a hire this weekend only guaranteed that we hired the flashiest candidate so far, nothing else.

Chip Kelly has won conference championships, not national titles.  He has zero experience in the NFL, zero.  This is not to say he can't be successful in the NFL but why so many fans assume that him in an orange visor guaranteed an end to this city's title drought is perplexing.  He's had a small sampling to prove himself, but in that window he has not claimed the ultimate prize he could have.  Not that should be the end all, Tressel has a longer, proven track record with national titles but there is no way I want him roaming the sidelines in an orange sweatervest.  Some are great at the college level and that's where they should stay.  Chip was intriguing but I am fine with us not being the team to roll the dice to find out.

  This was not a slam dunk decision, many franchise and life altering decisions are not that clear cut.  If after the wining and dining Chip thought he is best served by staying in Oregon, then good for him.  If Jimmy Haslam truly thought that Chip wasn't "all in" and walked away then I am more convinced then ever that we will raise that trophy with him as the owner.  If that's just a pr spin and we struck out with Chip then at least we did it swinging instead of leaving the bat on our shoulder. 

    I still say talk to Nick Saban once he secures his third title with Bama.  For the pundits who say no because the coach needs to be here for a decade and Saban won't stay that long I say who cares.  I would rather have a Nick Saban who knows he has half that time to secure the ultimate prize that has escaped his grasp so far.  I want to see that team of orange helmets jumping for joy after they win the last game of the season as much as anyone else and think that Saban at the helm gives us a great chance to see that and to see it soon.

    If we miss out on any of the high profile guys does not mean we are doomed.  My dream scenario is still Jon Gruden, the levels he took two teams with solid but not elite Quarterbacks is impressive.  Maybe the best candidate is hired already, I never heard of Marrone until a week ago but maybe he does for Buffalo what Levy failed to do for four straight years.  If he does I guarantee no Bill's fan is upset that they did not hire the "it" coach this off season.  Maybe the coach who is hired this year that turns out to be the most successful still hasn't even hit our radar screens yet, only time will tell.  I will not judge Jimmy's hire by how much buzz he creates right now, I am going to judge him by how many titles he brings to this town.